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Prediction for CME (2025-10-23T16:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-23T16:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42035/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2 imagery and may be faintly visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is speculative but may be related to an eruption from Active Region 14256 (S16W22) starting around 2025-10-23T15:45Z as seen in GOES SUVI 195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 304 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-27T13:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-26T16:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-10-23 23:41
 - Time at C2: 2025-10-23 16:38
 - Radial speed: 465.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: S05W10
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 545.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-10-26 16:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.72 hours)
Lead Time: 76.42 hour(s)
Difference: 21.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-10-24T09:13Z
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